Broncos (-9.5) over CHIEFS
I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Chiefs are the worst team in the NFL. I can almost guarantee they are picking top-3 in the NFL draft this spring, and definitely will be taking the best quarterback available. Why a quarterback? Well, when your roster boasts hair-model Brodie Croyle, journeyman Damon Huard and perennial backup/future CFL quarterback Tyler Thigpen, you might want to upgrade at the position. Kansas City wouldn't be so bad if their defense could actually make a stop, but since their run-D is terrible, they are usually trailing early in the game. Jay Cutler (his hair might actually rival Brodie Croyle for the best/worst in the league depending on how you look at it) is an absolute gunslinger and Brandon Marshall should have about 250 receiving yards. I understand Kansas City is a tough place to play, and the Chiefs will certainly be pumped up to play for the home crowd, but Denver is a division rival and should dominate all facets of this game. I like Denver in a blowout. Titanium-Alloy-Pipe-Lock for Denver.
Browns (+4.5) over BENGALS
The battle for Ohio has never looked so meaningless. The 0-3 Browns travel to the 0-3 Bengals for what should be the death toll for one of these clubs. The chances for making the playoffs at 0-3 are very small; the odds of making it at 0-4 are infinitesimal. The Bengals almost pulled off the upset against the Giants last week so they have looked somewhat frisky, while the Browns have scored two touchdowns in three games. I like the Browns to atleast cover the spread because of one insider story: friend of the blog, Swells, has a coworker who was college roommates with Ryan Fitzpatrick, the backup quarterback for the Bengals. According to Fitzpatrick, Chad "Ocho Cinco" (Spanish for "I'm a bitch") Johnson was crying like a little girl on the sidelines because Giants didn't respect him enough. The Bengals passed to him on the next play, and he subsequently dropped the pass. Chad Johnson and the rest of the Bengals are a nervous wreck right now, and Johnson's tears only confirmed what I initially suspected: the Browns should cover.
JAGUARS (-8.5) over Texans
Hurricane Ike took the town of Houston out for a nice seafood dinner, but never called them back. The Texans are 0-2 and don't even have their bye week to regroup while the 1-2 Jaguars are coming off an impressive win against Indianapolis where they finally found their running game. Houston, because of the canceled hurricane game, have yet to play a home game. Ouch. This Houston team looks like damaged goods, so I like the Jags in a romp.
Cardinals (+3.5) over JETS
After suffering defeat at the hand of the mighty Redskins, the Cardinals sleep in a hotel for a week, rather than head back to the west coast. That is a brutal schedule, and I would normally like their opponent in this one, but the Jets are coming off a Monday night game on the west coast, so the week is even shorter. The Cards might win the NFC West this year with only 8 wins, so they are better than people think. The Jets, a highly touted "sleeper" pick entering the season, have looked amazingly mediocre and definitely need this game to stay within streaking Buffalo. Somehow, I think all the pressure is on the Jets at home, so I like the Cards to win this game outright.
By the way, I wonder if Dennis Green (if he was still coaching the Cards) thought the Redskins were who they thought they were. Great win this weekend.
SAINTS (-6.5) over 49ers
The Saints are 1-0 at home, 0-2 on the road with a couple of narrow defeats. New Orleans could have easily won last week if it weren't for the holder wearing a ring and watch as the kicker attempted a crucial field goal. I could see Martin Gramatica flipping out Ray Finkle style. In ten years, if Steven Weatherford goes missing, and the Saints mascot (snowflake? a large Cajun man?) is kidnapped, I would first check to see if the Chief of Police in New Orleans is Martin Gramatica posing as a female detective plotting his revenge against Weatherford and the Saints. Laces out Weatherford!
Falcons (+6.5) over PANTHERS
It's well documented the Panthers haven't covered a home game since the Clinton administration. It's also well documented Matty Ice can lead the Falcons at home, but can he do it on the road? To win--no. To cover--yes. In the beginning of the season I bet if you polled Georgian residents most would say the University of Georgia Dawgs would beat the Atlanta Falcons. Now, I think the Falcons have persuaded atleast 50% of their fans they could beat a solid SEC team.
One side note, how does the NFL do well in the South? The order of importance of sports in the south goes like this:
1. SEC football
2. NASCAR
3. SEC football
4. SEC football
5. NFL football.
Teams like the Falcons, Panthers, Jaguars and Saints don't seem to have the loyal following Georgia, UNC, Flordia and LSU have in the area. But back on point. I see a steady diet of Michael Turner runs and John Kasey field goals. In the end I see more Kasay field goals.
TITANS (-3.5) over Vikings
Green jacket, gold jacket, who gives a shit? Tavaris Jackson, Gus Frerotte, who gives a shit? The Tennessee defense is so good, it doesn't really matter who plays quarterback for the Vikes. The Titans have given up 29 combined points all season, and Minnesota has problems scoring. The Vikings won't score more than 13 points, which is fine for Kerry Collins since he is good for atleast 2 touchdowns and a bottle of Jack. Also, since Adrian Peterson is a little banged up, this game is a no-brainer for Tennessee. It's not quite at the Denver Titanium-Alloy-Pipe Lock, but certainly some sort of solid metal lock. Tungsten, perhaps?
Packers (+2.5) over BUCS
This is a really tricky game. Do I trust the Packers on the road coming off a tough loss to Dallas or a frisky Bucs team at home? My head tells me Tampa, but my heart tells me Green Bay. In the end, the possibility of Aaron Rodgers throwing a touchdown pass, ripping off his helmet, and revealing some sort of crazy facial hair has me to excited to think straight on this one. I like the Packers in this one, but only by the length of a mustache.
RAMS (+9.5) over Bills
The Bills are 3-0 and have had the benefit of playing an easy schedule. The Rams are 0-3 and look like the one of the worst teams in the NFL. If the Rams are ever going to win a game, this is the time to do it. The Bills are a solid team that should contend for a playoff spot because of an easy playoff schedule, but they are young and prone to underestimate their opponent. Channeling my inner Jaworski, you can never underestimate a team in the National Football League. I see the Rams coming out firing while the Bills have a hangover from their last second win against Oakland. I like the Rams to cover, and could even pull off the upset.
Chargers (-6.5) over RAIDERS
Before the Monday night game, Norv was licking his chops and sharpening his cheese grater for shaving in anticipation of dismantling the Jets. Consider it a job well done. The prospect of facing his old team must have Norv even more excited. The Raiders are the worst run organization in sports with Al Davis throwing big money and washed up stars (Javon Walker, DeAngelo Hall et al) and lame-duck coach Lane Kiffin waiting to get the axe. In see the Chargers thoroughly dominating the Raiders and LT finally looking like the LT of old.
Redskins (+10.5) over COWBOYS
While this might seem like a biased pick, the analysis is grounded in facts, stats and rampant speculation. The Skins always get up for the Cowboys and have beaten their arch rival in Dallas two of the last three years. The Cowboys have played two straight huge games against the Eagles and Packers so I expect a bit of a letdown in the beginning. The Cowboys are very talented but with Wade Phillips at the helm, they won't be able to maintain their focus for the entire season. Also, I recently read "Boys Will Be Boys", Jeff Pearlman's in-depth look at the 1990's Cowboys exploits on and off the field and in a nutshell, it portrays Jerry Jones as an owner who deeply cares about his team but misfires on some of his personnel decisions. Jones' decision to bring in some trouble makers comes back to bite him here, I think. There is no way a locker room with Terrell Owens, Tank Johnson, Pacman Jones etc can last without some drama. I don't know if the Skins will win, but I definitely like them to cover.
Eagles (-3.5) over BEARS
Brian Westbrook begins his usual questionable-before-the-game-but-has-3-td's-anyway status because of his injury in week 3. I, for one, am not terribly worried about the Eagles. Andy Reid has resigned himself to film study while neglecting his child raising responsibilities which is great if you are an Eagles fan, not so great if your Andy Reid's son. The Bears played valiantly at home against the Bucs but just don't have the weapons to hang with Westbrook, McNabb, Jackson and LJ Smtih. Well, not Smith, but everyone else is better than any Bears player.
Ravens (+6.5) over STEELERS
Willy Parker--out. Casey Hampton--out. Big Ben--injured shoulder. Ray Lewis--cold blooded killer. Yep, I like the Ravens in this one. The Steelers are a good team but a suspect offensive line leaves them susceptible to blitzes and any punishing defenses schemes. The Ravens defense certainly fits that description. I hate picking Joe Flacco and the Ravens in his first professional road game, but I think the Ravens can do enough to cover. Unlike the past couple of Monday night games which have been blowouts, I see this one being relatively low scoring.
10-6 last week against the spread.
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