How To Win Your Fantasy Football League

I won two fantasy football leagues this year and around these here parts, that makes me somewhat of an expert. So, if you don't mind, let me tell you not necessarily how I won, but how you can win your league. In no way is this similar to the D.E.N.N.I.S. system, but it's very, very close.

Step 1: Know Your League Rules.
You would be amazed how many people overlook this point. Do you get 4 or 6 points for passing touchdowns? It it a PPR League? Do you get points for punt/kickoff touchdowns? These are the major stats that differentiate each league, but there are many, many more but aren't as common.

Step 2: Evaluate Talent.
You don't have to be a director of scouting to have a good handle on the talented players. Just keep up to date with depth charts, injuries, and overall production. Unless a player has really bottomed out from the previous season, chances are he's still good.

Step 3: Draft Day Help
If you participating in a live draft, bring one piece of paper with every position for every team so you can easily see what players have been drafted. For example if you picking in the #9 spot in a 10-team league, and you know the person drafting at the #10 spot in a snake league already has a TE, then you can probably wait to draft a TE on the wraparound; no need to burn a pick so early.

These general pointers are all well and good, but unless you have an idea of how drafts shake out, it won't do much good. First, let's debunk a couple of myths.

Myth # 1 The age old mantra was to draft two running backs in the first two rounds, then cherry pick WR's and QB's later on. Unless you are playing in some crazy RB-weighted league, then you absolutely do not use this strategy. Sure, you could get lucky with Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson, but chances are, you'll get stuck with Brandon Jacobs and Matt Forte. First, RB success is so hit-or-miss. Second, many teams use the platoon system which spreads the ball around. Next year, unless I get a top-3 pick and grab Chris Johnson, MJD or AP, I'm not taking a RB in the first round. It's much, much wiser to grab WR's and QB's early and wait on RB's. Additionally, look to target RB's with no platoon system. For example, Ced Benson was the only game in town in Cincinnati this season. Was he good? Eh, I'd say mediocre at best. However, when you give 35 carries to anyone, they'll do some damage. Much easier to get 100 yards and a score from 35 carries instead of 15. The flipside to that is DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. If they had the backfield to themselves to might be a top-4 pick next year. But they steal carries from each other and if you own one, you're praying for an injury from the other. So, the lesson is wait on RB's.

Myth # 2
Most experts say to wait on TE's and QB's. There is some truth this statement, but it's not always the case. For example, leagues that employ 2 QB's or where passing TD's are worth 6 points, you pretty much have to take a QB in the first 3 rounds. Again, you could get lucky with mid-round picks like Matt Schaub or Donovan McNabb, but I would imagine players like Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers were the QB's of most championship teams. Really, this is a personal preference. I like having a stable QB and not worrying about their production. If you invest a high pick in someone like Brady, Brees, Manning, Rodgers or Rivers you are pretty much guaranteed decent production. Also, the NFL is a passing league so QB's routinely throw for 300+ yards. You would think that means wait on the QB, but those 300+ yard days from lower tier quarterbacks are much harder to predict than the top picks.

Similarly, people usually say to wait on TE's. Usually there are 4-5 top tier TE's and then group of about 10 players that are equally serviceable available in the late rounds. I would say unless you don't get a top-TE (Clark, Gates, Gonzo) to wait until after round 10 to draft one. Usually the top TE's are the best, but every season produces someone like Brent Celek (unheralded TE from Philly). The strategy to wait on TE's is good only if you actually get lucky with a player like Celek. If you invest a higher pick, you are pretty much guaranteed decent production. Furthermore, the argument against drafting a TE early has been that in the 5th or 6th round, you could grab someone more serviceable that could help your team. At this point all good WR's are gone so you are basically playing roulette with RB's. Sure you could get a Ray Rice in the 5th, but you're probably drafting a backup RB. I prefer the guaranteed production over the timeshare RB. The one caveat to this rule is you never want to start the run on TE's. Inevitably in the 5th or 6th round of most drafts some guy will grab Gates or Gonzo but it will never be me to start that TE-run. If I can grab a Ray Rice-like lottery ticket while waiting to start drafting a TE, then I will always do that. The lesson is: don't wait on QB's or TE's

In my opinion, those are two big myths to avoid. When you factor all of this in, your team should look like this:

Round 1-3: 1 top RB. This means getting either MJD, Chris Johnson or AP in Round 1, or an equally serviceable replacement that doesn't split carries in rounds 2-3.

Round 1-3: 1 top QB. I like having the comfort of a quality QB that I can count on for 10-20 points/week, no questions asked. If you want Brees, Manning, Brady or Rodgers it will cost you a round 1-2 pick; if you want Rivers, McNabb, Schaub or Warner you will need to use a round-3+ pick.

Round 1-5: 3 top WR's. Definitely grab one in the first two rounds, and try to get at least 2 more by the end of the 5th. WR's are more consistent from season to season, less prone to injuries and since it's a passing league, scoring more than past seasons. Also, there is usually a big dropoff from top flight WR's to lower-tier talent. Additionally, don't chase touchdowns. Guys that posted 10 TD's but low yardage are unpredictable and can't be counted on. As a general rule, players with high receiving yards are the most desirable.

Round 5-7: 1 top TE. Grab a top flight-TE here in the middle rounds. But don't start the TE run. If you miss out, wait until after round 10.

Round 6-10: Grab as many RB's as you can. Take some gambles on highly touted rookie RB's or veterans that have the job for themselves. Basically, you take a flier on 4-5 RB's, 1-2 should pan out. Couple that with the guaranteed production from your consistent WR's and QB and TE, you should be sitting pretty.

Tip # 1: Wait until the last two round to draft a Defense and Kicker. Seriously, there is very little rhyme or reason to their scoring, so don't even bother. I'm serious, you'll like an asshole if you grab a kicker in the 10th round.

Tip # 2: Don't carry a backup TE except for a bye-week fill-in.

Tip # 3: I don't like to carry a backup QB if you get one of the big guns. It's a wasted roster spot if you are just leaving Brady, Brees etc in your lineup every week. However, if you have a QB outside the top-8, I'd invest a roster spot in a backup.

Tip # 4: Don't draft a running back in the first 5 rounds that's over the age of 29. Sure, you get Thomas Jones like seasons every once in a while, but there is a lot of evidence that says running backs (especially ones with a ton of carries) aren't the same runner once they hit their late 20's.

Tip #5: Every season players get rewarded for their production with a big contract. I try to avoid players that aren't playing for a new contract because they are fat, happy and content. This rule is especially true if the player was a headcase before the contract. There are always exceptions, but I try to avoid drafting players that had one, phenomenal "contract year."

There will always be a certain amount of luck involved in your success, but if you follow these easy steps, you too can manage a fantasy football champion.