World Cup 2010 Preview

What's that? It's only 2009 and only 23 of 32 teams have qualified for the World Cup? Well, I say it's never too early to mock up the World Cup Groups.

Here's the skinny:

-32 teams qualify
-8 groups of 4
-each group gets a top seed to avoid top teams playing each other in the opening round.
-no more than 2 European teams per group

Number of teams to qualify from each region:
Europe - 13
Africa - 6 (5 + host nation, South Africa)
South America - 4.5*
Asia - 5**
North America 3.5*

* The 4th place finisher from North America, Costa Rica, plays a home-and-home series against the 5th place finisher in South America (Uruguay). If Costa Rica wins, North America gets 4 spots, and S.A. gets 4. If Uruguay wins, N.A. gets 3 spots and S.A. gets 5.

** The 5th place finisher in Asia (Bahrain) plays the Oceania winner (New Zealand) in a home-and-home series. In the first leg, NZ and Bahrain tied 0-0 at Bahrain. The next match up is in Wellington, NZ with New Zealand needing a win to advance and Bahrain advancing with a win or tie (if goals are scored).

Teams to Qualify:
Europe:
Spain
Germany
England
Italy
Netherlands
Denmark
Switzerland
Serbia
Slovakia
France/Ireland
Portugal/Bosnia
Greece/Ukraine
Russia/Slovenia

Africa:
South Africa
Ghana
Ivory Coast
Cameroon/Gabon
Tunisia/Nigeria
Algeria/Egypt

Asia:
Australia
Japan
South Korea
North Korea
Bahrain/New Zealand

South America:
Brazil
Argentina
Paraguay
Chile

North America:
USA
Mexico
Honduras

Costa Rica/Uruguay -- winner of the home-and-home goes to the WC.


The four remaining spots in Europe will be determined by a home-and-home playoff. Based on the match ups, I like Portugal, Ukraine and Russia to advance. The France/Ireland match up is quite intriguing since France always seems to under perform (except, you know, when they won the World Cup in 1998 and finished 2nd in 2006) and the Irish seem frisky.

In Africa, the three remaining spots will be clinched by round robin games. Ivory Coast and Ghana have already won their respective groups. I like Cameroon, Egypt and Tunisia to emerge from their groups.

Seeding

As mentioned above, FIFA groups the best teams so the likes of Brazil, Italy, Germany and England aren't all in the same group. Granted, this system isn't perfect and usually produces a "group of death" where two strong European teams or a Argentina/Brazil + strong European team and grouped with a strong African team (Ghana, for example) or a USA/Mexicoesque team.

The host nation, South Africa, is already put in Group A and given a top seed. Other likely top seeds are Brazil, Italy, Germany, England, Spain. That leaves two more top seeds up for grabs from the likes of Netherlands, Argentina, France, Portugal, USA and Mexico. First of all, France and Portugal still have to qualify to be considered top seeds. Secondly, it will be interesting to see how Nerthelands and Argentina get placed. The Netherlands dominated their group play and were one of the first teams to qualify. Will FIFA reward their recent dominant play? Traditional powerhouse Argentina struggled to qualify needing a last second win in South America to get the 4th spot and automatic bid. Will FIFA punish Argentina for struggling to qualify?

If France and Portugal do indeed qualify, will FIFA punish them and not give them a top seed despite past World Cup success? The only possible way the US can get one of the top seeds is if France and Portugal somehow don't qualify and FIFA punishes Argentina for struggling to qualify. Seeding is based on world cup qualifying, past world cup success, world rankings etc. It just depends how much weight is given to each category.

Pots

Assuming FIFA keeps the same system in place from 2006, here's how it should shake out.

A -- For now, lets call the top seeds South Africa, Brazil, England, Spain, Italy, Germany and Argentina and the Netherlands in the last two spots. Those 8 teams get put in pot A.

B -- Pot B contains unseeded teams from South America and Africa. This should include Paraguay, Chile, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon/Gabon, Algeria/Egypt, Tunisia/Nigeria. If Argentina doesn't get a top seed, they would be grouped in here and the obvious team other nations want to avoid. However, that seems rather unlikely. A more likely scenario is if Uruguay knocks off Costa Rica, they would be placed here.

C -- Pot C contains unseeded teams from Europe. This would include Denmark, Switzerland, Serbia, Slovakia, Russia/Slovenia, Greece/Ukraine. If Bosnia upset Portugal or if Ireland knocked off France, those teams would be added to this group. Either way there should be 8 European teams here.

D -- Pot D contains unseeded teams from North America and Asia. This would include USA, Mexico, Honduras, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia and Bahrain/New Zealand. If Costa Rica beats Uruguay, then they would be included in this group.


What does this mean for the U.S?

Depending on how the top seeds shake out, the U.S. has a 1/4 chance of landing in a group of death. In my opinion there are 4 remaining teams vying for 2 top seeds. The 2 other teams that don't get those top seeds will get grouped and for a "group of death."

Pot A -- Top Euro team, Argentina/Brazil, South Africa
Pot B -- African and South American teams
Pot C -- Remaing European Teams
Pot D -- USA

Sooooo, worst case scenario for the U.S. We get grouped with a France/Portugal/Netherlands squad that barely misses the Pot A Top Seed, and feisty African or South American nation, and a traditional European or South American power.

Best case scenario? We get grouped with South Africa, a lesser S.A. team, and lesser European squad. In reality as long as we avoid one of the two groups that will house two traditional powers we should be okay.