2009 Oscar Predictions

Even though I've only seen two of the best picture nominated films (Slumdog and Ben Button), it won't stop me from making a few Oscar predictions. Since last years show had low ratings, I have a feeling they gave marquee stars with marginal performances some nominations to boost ratings. However, just because they were nominated doesn't necessarily mean those hacks will win.




Best Picture:

Slumdog Millonaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Frost/Nixon
The Reader

Pick: Slumdog Millionaire. Danny Boyle's tale set in Mumbai should win, but then again, Brokeback Mountain should have beaten Crash a few years ago. I could see Ben Button sneaking in, but it would truly be an upset. Milk is a longshot, but the Academy might give the film the statue since Brokeback was slighted three years ago.

Best Actor:

Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Sean Penn - Milk
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Brad Pitt - Ben Button
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor

Pick: Mickey Rourke. Penn and Langella are the only other options in this category. Penn is just as likely as Rourke, but since Penn won a few years ago, I think they give it to Rourke. People want Rourke to win so he has the chance to do something crazy during his acceptance speech. If he does something crazy, the rating will be higher, so it's in the Academy's best interest to give Rourke the statue.

Best Actress:

Kate Winslet - The Reader
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River

Pick: Kate Winslet. Winslet, Hathaway and Streep are in a three-way race. Streep seems to get nominated every year, so I don't think people give it to her. That leaves Winslet and Hathaway. Winslet seems like she has made a decent number of films that her body of work should get her the Oscar.

Best Supporting Actor:

Heath Ledger - Dark Knight
Four Other Random Dudes That Have No Chance

Pick: Heath Ledger. As good as money in the bank. Stone Cold, lead pipe lock.

Best Supporting Actress:

Penelope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Amy Adams -Doubt
Taraji Henson - Ben Button
Viola Davis - Doubt

Pick: Penelope Cruz. It's a two-way race between Cruz and Tomei. Tomei won 15 years ago for her memorable turn in My Cousin Vinny, in one of the Oscars all-time biggest upsets. That means even if she is more deserving than Cruz, she won't win this time. I'll take Cruz, but this category is wide open.

Best Director:

Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - Ben Button
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Stephen Daldry - The Reader

Pick: Danny Boyle. I feel very confident about this pick. He's won every other award out there. Also, if Slumdog is upset in the best picture category, they still give the favored director the statue. Perfect example is when Shakespeare in Love upset Saving Private Ryan, but Steven Spielbergo still took home the statue for Best Director.